Currently, cable and satellite customers who want HDTV service really only have one, maybe two choices for how they interact with their service. They can either have a mediocre experience with their cable provider's box or a slightly better experience from TiVo.* This is much the same as the relationship consumers have when they buy a dumbphone from a cell phone carrier. The hardware is mediocre and the software is uninspired, full of crap carrier-branded applications with an awful UX.
There is no denying that Apple is responsible for raising the average consumer's expectations of what a phone experience should be and Google used that to its advantage to get customers interested in their Android platform. In contrast, Apple has had zero impact with it's AppleTV device. Just as Apple shook up the mobile phone market with iPhone in 2007 Google could have a similar impact in the TV space.
Using their Android model Google could write the software that powers the cable and/or satellite boxes in customer's homes then freely distribute it to hardware partners who would then sell the Google set top boxes to cable/satellite companies.
The revenue model is obvious. Google could be the ultimate ad company with all of the data they would gain from users behavior when watching TV. The Google set top boxes would phone home to Mountain View and Google would be able to target ads to very specific consumer behavior.
I would really like to hear what the downside would be. In writing this I could not come up with a reason why Google wouldn't do this. I'm sure it's just a matter of time.
If you are interested in my feelings toward TiVo read this. (although written in 2005 the fact that it is still true proves TiVo's irrelevance)
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